prognosis

Last reviewed 01/2018

  • mild heart failure has an annual mortality of not more than 10%
  • severe heart failure has an annual mortality of 50%
  • B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP):
    • higher concentrations of BNP or its precursor form, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, are consistently associated with increased risk of death and cardiovascular events (1)
  • a study of over 5 million people examined long-term trends in first hospitalization for heart failure and subsequent survival between 1986 and 2003 (2)
    • age-adjusted first hospitalization rates for heart failure (HF) (per 100 000; 95% CI in parentheses)
      • rose from 124 (119 to 129) in 1986 to 162 (157 to 168) in 1994 and then fell to 105 (101 to 109) in 2003 in men;
      • in women, they rose from 128 (123 to 132) in 1986 to 160 (155 to 165) in 1993, falling to 101 (97 to 105) in 2003
    • case-fatality rates fell steadily over the period
      • adjusted 30-day case-fatality rates fell after discharge (adjusted odds [2003 versus 1986] 0.59 [95% CI 0.45 to 0.63] in men and 0.77 [95% CI 0.67 to 0.88] in women)
      • adjusted 1- and 5-year survival improved similarly
        • median survival increased from 1.33 to 2.34 years in men and from 1.32 to 1.79 years in women.

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