predictors of progression

Last reviewed 01/2018

Prospective studies on cohorts of homosexual men and haemophiliacs in developed countries have revealed the following predictors of progression to AIDS.

• CD4+ve counts
• CD4+ >500 cells/microlitre or CD4+:CD8+ ratio >0.63 carries a risk for developing AIDS in the next 48 months of 1:12
• CD4+ < 250 cells/microlitre or CD4+:CD8+ ratio < 0.3 carries a risk for developing AIDS in the next 48 months of 2:3
• oral thrush double the chance of progression
• serum HIV p24 antigen also increases the chance of developing AIDS

The rate of progression is similar in both sexes and pregnancy does not increase the rate of progression.